The National Hurricane Center’s forecast track for soon-to-be Tropical Storm Arthur. Courtesy of NOAA
The strange jet stream pattern over the United States continues to deluge the midwest.
There’s trouble brewing in two oceans, but the weather looks good for the World Cup and Wimbledon sporting events. And of course we’ll want to check out the weather for the Fourth of July fireworks. Let’s go around the world.
Tropical Triple-Play: A Fourth Tropical Storm Forms South Of Mexico — And A Fifth; Plus the Atlantic’s First Storm
Eastern Pacific Ocean. Tropical Storms Douglas and Elida were named within a day of each other in the far eastern Pacific. The breeding ground south of Mexico has now birthed all five of this season’s eastern Pacific cyclones, two of which became hurricanes.
The water remains near 90 degrees in the area, and more activity can be expected. Luckily Douglas and Elida, like most western Pacific tropical systems, will move west or northwest to where the water is much colder. The previous three systems dissipated without reaching land, as will Douglas and Elida.
Atlantic Basin. Stationary low pressure off the Florida east coast, currently just called tropical depression one-E, will become the first named tropical storm of the Atlantic season: Arthur. Tropical storm watches are in effect on the mid-Florida coast, and the most reliable forecast model predicts that Arthur will be a hurricane and affect the North Carolina coast on Wednesday or Thursday and move northeast from there. The model isn’t always right, but there is a good possibility that Arthur will put a damper on some weekend activities in the northeast.
Severe Weather Outbreak Elephant Continues
- Torrential Downpours: An inch of rain fell on Cedar Rapids, Iowa in nine minutes. Many cities report over five inches of rain since Elephant began on Sunday.
- Tornadoes: Elephant has produced numerous tornadoes, the strongest an EF2, but mostly Ef1 and EF0. The tornadoes caused some damage, but so far Elephant’s tornadoes have not been as severe as was forecast.
- Hail: Hail has been widespread, some as large as grapefruits but not as tasty.
- Derecho: A derecho can roughly be thought of as a tornado on its side stretched to many tens of miles long, and which lasts for hours. The derecho that rumbled through Milwaukee and Chicago with hurricane-force winds Monday night can still be identified in Ohio on Tuesday morning.
- More severe weather: Elephant will roam east, reaching the coast on Thursday.
- More flooding: All the rain that has fallen in the upper midwest will be heading down the Mississippi River, which will crest later in the week in Missouri and Arkansas.
- Mosquitoes: Where water doesn’t drain quickly in the flooded areas, mosquitoes breed prolifically.
The forecast for the Fourth of July. Image courtesy of NOAA
Weather For The World Cup
FIFA continues to look good for its selection of Brazil to host this year’s Soccer Spectacle. Today’s match between the US and Belgium will be played under perfect conditions in Salvador.
Wimbledon Tennis Weather
The Wimbledon Tennis Tournament is being played under excellent conditions — not always the case in London in the summer — and the fine weather will continue right through the ladies’ and gentlemen’s singles finals on Saturday and Sunday respectively. No heat. No cold. No rain.
Natural Fireworks On The Fourth?
Viewing of fireworks displays will be great over the midwest, which gets a respite from the non-stop rains of June. The good weather should reach well down the Mississippi Valley. California and the southwest will also be dry.
The forecast for the northeast, including New York, is complicated by Tropical Storm Arthur, which may bring rain and wind to the Big Apple or may stay far enough offshore to allow for a nice night.
Elsewhere, afternoon thunderstorms could form and linger into evening. All in all, there shouldn’t be many complaints about the weather this holiday weekend.
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