Slightly over a month ago, President Obama seemed to have a significant advantage in swing states. The most recent polling from Gallup has the race looking more competitive, with Obama leading 47 percent to 45 percent among registered voters in the 12 states that may decide the 2012 election.
Gallup Polling Methodology
The USA Today/Gallup swing state poll was published with data collected from Gallup daily tracking reports. Respondents were polled from April 26 to May 2, 2012. The sample consisted of 951 registered voters in the following states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Interviews were conducted via landline and cell phones. Samples were weighted for demographics and phone status.
The Significance of Swing States
In what is speculated to be a very close election, swing states could determine the result. Support for Obama and Romney seems to be evenly divided among the states that reliably fall red and blue, so the remaining states are sure to be campaign hot spots as the candidates try to win over voters. With electoral votes determining the presidential election, campaign strategists on both sides are working to understand exactly which of the 12 key swing states are “must-haves.”
Is Obama Losing Traction?
The USA Today/Gallup swing state poll has been conducted six times so far this election cycle. Obama and Romney started out virtually even in November 2011. Romney maintained a razor thin lead over Obama until late March of 2012 when Obama surged ahead with a 9 point lead. That lead has shrunk to two points this month, indicating that Obama saw a drop in favorability while Romney saw an increase.