NOAA released its June summary of global land and sea temperatures on Monday.
The results were as expected: Hot, hotter, hottest of all time.
The global land and sea temperature was the hottest on record for June — surpassing the old record, set last June, by nearly a quarter of a degree.
This June was the fourth month in the last six with record land and sea temperatures; it was the eighth month in the last 12 with a new record.
For those who disagree with the concept of global warming: There is little — actually nothing — in this report to support any other conclusion than that the earth is warming rapidly — and at an increasing and alarming rate.
June By The Numbers
The combined land and sea temperatures averaged over the entire globe were the warmest ever; the land temperature was the warmest ever; the sea temperature was the warmest ever.
If we break the temperature down by hemisphere, the land temperature in the northern hemisphere was only the second warmest on record.
The land temperature in the southern hemisphere, the sea temperature in each hemisphere, and the combined land and sea temperatures in each hemisphere, however, were all record highs.
Since some locations experience larger departures from normal on average than others, it is more instructive to look at the temperatures as percentiles than simply look the departures themselves. The 50th percentile is the median — the middle value; the 100th percentile is warmest; the zero percentile is coldest.
Here are some of the highlights of the June temperature percentiles for ocean areas:
- A large swath of the tropical and north sub-tropical Pacific Ocean had record warmth. This is related to El Niño Eggplant.
- Much of the Gulf of Alaska had record warmth.
- A large portion of the central Indian ocean had record warmth.
- A section of the Atlantic off the US coast had record warmth.
- Part of the South Atlantic near the South American coast had record warmth.
- The waters south of Japan had record warmth.
- Virtually all the rest of the oceans were at or above the 136-year median.
- The only record cold sea surface was a small patch off the coast of Greenland in a larger area of below normal sea surface temperatures.
- A small part of the sub-tropical South Pacific was below normal.
Here are some of the highlights of the June land temperatures:
- The northwestern United States had record warmth.
- Much of east-central South America had record warmth.
- Patches of west-central Africa had record warmth.
- Sri Lanka and the southern tip of India had record warmth.
- The area of the former Soviet Union around the Caspian Sea had record warmth.
- Part of southeast Asia from south-central China to Vietnam had record warmth.
- All other land areas were at or above the 136-year median except for parts of north India and central China.
The First Six Months Of 2015 And The Most Recent Calendar Year
January to June of 2015 was the warmest first six months of any year since record-keeping began in 1880. It was a clean sweep, with land, land and sea, and sea alone coming in first place.
The northern hemisphere had three firsts, while the southern hemisphere had two seconds and a third.
The most recent twelve months are the warmest on record. The ten warmest 12-month periods have been the last ten, with each month’s most-recent 12-month period eclipsing the record of the month before.
How Fast Is The Earth Warming?
It’s possible to do lots of chicanery with extrapolation, as evidenced by the persistent myth of a pause in global warming, perpetuated by measuring everything starting with the El Niño year of 1998.
Let’s look at reasonable projections that are at the two ends of the spectrum.
Global land and sea temperatures in June of 2015 averaged 61.48 degrees. This was 0.22 degrees higher than the previous record set in 2014. It would be reasonable to extrapolate the rate of change between 2014 and 2015, and to assume the warmth is spread evenly between land and sea.
If this is the case, the earth is warming at 0.22 degrees per year, or one degree every four and a half years, or 20 degrees every ninety years.
If the rate of change of temperature continues at the pace of the past June-to-June, the average daytime temperature in Dallas in July of 2105 will be 117; in New York it will be 104; and in Las Vegas it will be 125. These will be the averages — not the temperatures during unusual heat waves.
Now let’s calculate a different way. The June, 2015 average land temperature was 62.17 — a record, but only 0.11 degrees warmer than the old record set in 2012. Extrapolating from these years, the earth’s land surface is warming at one degree every 27 years.
If the change continues at that pace, in the year 2105, the average July maximum temperatures in Dallas, New York, and Las Vegas would be 100, 87, and 108, respectively. Hot, but not so hot as to start a stampede of heat refugees to Canada.
Scientists may disagree on how fast the earth is heating up. But only a grotesque misuse of statistics shows anything but a dangerously-warming ocean-atmosphere system.
Climate Change Is Happening; Where Will It End Up?
Climate change is taking place right now; the observations show a rapid and accelerating increase in temperatures globally.
The atmosphere has gotten out of control in the past and produced, at different times, an icebound and a suffocatingly-hot planet. Have we set in motion the processes that will lead to one of these?