Is Obama’s likeability taking a hit? Photo Credit: Elizabeth Cromwell
A new poll conducted for The Hill by Pulse Opinion Research found likely voters rating Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney higher than President Obama on several key likeability issues.
Romney led 48 percent to 44 percent when respondents were asked which candidate is a better leader.
The match up was 47 percent to 44 percent when respondents where asked who best shares their values, and 46 to 44 when asked who is more honest and trustworthy.
Despite these figures, Obama has consistently had higher overall likeability ratings. The most recent Gallup poll gave him 54 percent favorability, compared to Romney’s 46 percent.
Pulse Opinion Poll Methodology
The automated survey was conducted on July 26, 2012. It sampled 1,000 self-identified likely voters.
Pulse opinion research also conducts polls on behalf of Rasmussen and Fox News.
It is known for using some controversial polling tactics, including automated interviewing, interviewing that spans a short period of time, narrowing samples down to likely voters, and weighting for party affiliation.
Was the Poll Inconsistent with Other Similar Polls?
Although most other polls show Obama with a distinct edge on likeability, the Pulse poll was unique in that it did not directly ask which candidate was more likeable. Instead, it broke the topic down into specific questions on leadership, values, and honesty. It may be that, while respondents are more likely to say Obama is likeable, they may not feel the same way when asked if he meets certain standards that could define “likeability.” It is also possible that different respondents have different views of what constitutes a likeable candidate. Some of these may not have been considered in the poll wording.
For these reasons, matching this poll up with others that simply asked which candidate is more likeable may not be a fair comparison.
Differences in methodology should also be considered, since Pulse tends to follow a different model than most other polling organizations. A sample that is screened to include only voters who say they are likely to vote in November may bring about different opinions in likeability issues than a poll that is a random sampling of all Americans.
New Romney vs. Obama Poll: Was There Oversampling?
Some recent presidential polls have samples that include Independents as the largest party affiliation demographic, followed by Democrats, then Republicans. The reasoning behind this is usually that it was the way the random sample fell, and the pollster chose not to weight for party affiliation. A common explanation for this occurring somewhat often is that Conservatives are increasingly identifying as Independents, possibly due to the popularity of the Tea Party movement. The Pulse poll had a slightly different demographic, however. Republicans made up the largest party affiliated group at 35 percent, followed by Democrats at 34 percent, and Independents at 31 percent. The pollster also states in its methodology that it weights for party affiliation. Some conservative activists have criticized mainstream pollsters for oversampling Democrats, and they may prefer the weighting and “likely voter” screening conducted by Pulse. Democrats may argue that weighting for party affiliation is considered controversial by many polling experts.
Presidential Race Poll Results: Interpretation
Although Romney’s approval rating is not typically measured in polls at this time, the poll from Pulse indicates he may be seen as increasingly likeable. Photo Credit: publiceye.org
Although likeability and job approval do not necessarily go hand-in-hand, the President has seen his job approval polling averages fall flat around the time this poll was conducted. His current Real Clear Politics average is all tied up, with 47.5 approving and 47.5 disapproving. His numbers were significantly reduced by a Rasmussen tracking report issued July 30 that had him down 5 points in approval versus disapproval. Rasmussen polls are conducted by Pulse, and follow a similar methodology as the poll conducted for The Hill.
Resources
Alberts, Sheldon. The Hill Poll: Voters say Romney, Obama equal on issues of character. Accessed July 31, 2012.
RealClearPolitics. Obama Approval Rating. Accessed July 31, 2012.
© Copyright 2012 Marissa Selner, All rights Reserved. Written For: Decoded Science
It is unfathomable to think that Obama still has any appeal after the past 4 years! If those of you, who are wishing for his re-election would care to see what a socialist state is, take a trip to those countries outside of our borders, who have had to live with what you are asking for. Why the heck do you think they are coming here? Be careful what you wish for, you may just get it. Barack is a disgrace to this nation! GOD BLESS AMERICA!
In response to Brandt and Marcia’s post about Romney. Selfish spoiled rich kid? What hypocrisy from an entire post-world war II suburban-raised, “educated” “angelic” white generation. There’s never been a more selfish and self-aggrandizing generation to appear on the face of this earth.
I’m with Brandt -this average American can’t identify with a selfish and spoiled rich kid like Romney. Besides, he seems as dumb as a box of hair. Look who is giving Romney money? The Koch brothers -give me a break.
Obama, in contrast, is a real person who worked his way to where he is. Obama is smart and fair. And the debt? We inherited that from our last Republican President, Bush and his side Dick Chaney (let’s not forget Wolfson) who pushed us into an expensive and unnecessary war. We’re finally coming out of the Republican-induced recession/depression and now the Republicans want back in to further kick the middle class into he gutter. Gimme a break.
I am a middle class minority. I support Romney!!!!! Let’s get that radical Marxist out of the white house and reclaim our wonderful country!
Obama’s foreign policy failed. Obama erased 1,000,000,000$ of Egypt’s debt to U.S for a man who refused to shake Clinton’s hand because she is a woman.
The question that rises from this move is why does women in polls are considered to be in favor of Obama. What is the particular charm that this government has
Only to remind: U.S debt is almost 15,893,000,000,000$
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Dems have gone out of their way to knock and smear Romney however fully informed Americans know that Romney is exactly what the United States needs to get back on it’s feet. On top of that with Obama doing so poorly Romney will more then likely win by a landslide.
You have no idea of the good which Romney has done for both the middle class and the poor. He has given literally millions of dollars for each of these class. You are another one of the uneducated or uninformed idots we have to deal with each day.
Romney is a rich pariah who simply can’t identify with ANY average American through his fog of lies and network of havened money. He’ll only continue to get booed out of the room by every group of minority and middle class voters he comes across. His religion and wealth is highly elitist and everyone in this country has had it with his kind. We’re telling Mitt he can’t buy this election!