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Net Neutrality: Predicting the Future of the Internet

January 15, 2014 by Victoria Nicks 3 Comments

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Some believe that the end of Net Neutrality means the ‘End of the Internet’ – but what will ISPs really do with all this freedom? Image by Decoded Science.

Yesterday, the U.S. Court of Appeals, District of Columbia Circuit, struck down Net Neutrality once more, by vacating portions of the ‘Open Internet Order’ – the latest version of an attempt to compel Internet Service Providers (ISPs) to provide exactly the same service to each user.

Some say the end of Net Neutrality is the “End of the Internet” – others say that it’s nothing to worry about. Both predictions are based on either ‘What if the ISPs do X?‘ (Pro Net Neutrality) or ‘The ISPs wouldn’t do that!’ (Against Net Neutrality).

So – what is it that the ISPs could (or wouldn’t) do with the freedom they have in a Net Neutrality-less nation?

Allocate Resources

Net Neutrality dictates that each user who is using their Internet service for lawful purposes should have equal access. In other words, no packet preference for anyone. If you’re playing online video games in your house, and I’m downloading a PDF from the Smithsonian’s website next door, our packets compete on a first-come-first-served basis.




No Packet Preference: Good or Bad for Users?

In a nutshell, here’s one basic reason Net Neutrality Proponents say no-packet-preference is a good thing: Our Internet Provider (assuming we share a provider) can’t interfere with either of our activities. You play your video game, I download my file, and we have equal access to the Internet. That means – if I’m downloading something the ISP doesn’t like (maybe an information packet from a competitor’s website) or accessing online information to which they’d rather I not have access (application for a change in service) they aren’t able to stop those activities.

Here’s the opposing viewpoint: If we’re competing for those packets in a head-to-head match, it could take longer for me to download my PDF – unless it’s a huge PDF and then, sorry, but your video game may freeze. That’s because an ISP’s users are all competing for the same bandwidth, in smaller or larger increments. An ISP may have several backbone connections, but all of their users are competing for the bandwidth that is available from those sources. In some cases, an ISP will set up dedicated lines, in which case you have unlimited access within your allocated amount of bandwidth – but they often share dedicated lines among customers, which means you’re still competing.

If the ISP has the freedom to limit huge transfers of data (particularly during peak periods) then both of our applications may run a little slower, but nothing freezes up. And if either of us uses bandwidth at excessive levels, we’ll be asked to upgrade our service – to pay more for a larger allocation of bandwidth that better fits our usage.

ISPs: Power Corrupts

One of the biggest arguments for Net Neutrality is that the ISPs will, essentially, take over the Internet and ruin it for everyone. As Craig Aaron, journalist for the Daily Beast tells us, “Expect Internet blackouts that extend far beyond the popular content vendors, as smaller websites are caught in the crossfire. Tweets, emails and texts will be mysteriously delayed or dropped. Videos will load slowly, if at all. Websites will work fine one minute and freeze the next.”

Is this a likely scenario? During the telecommunication deregulation of the 1980s, many feared that our great American telephone system would no longer be reliable, but now that there’s a phone in every pocket, that’s clearly not an issue. However, who’s to say that Verizon, AT&T and others won’t take advantage of their freedom in the future?

This is the underlying issue: There’s no way to accurately predict the future actions of a variety of different companies, all competing for the same niche. We can, however predict the results of either outcome.

This map shows the availability of broadband Internet Access in the United States. Image courtesy of Broadband.gov.

ISPs Compete For Customers

Outcome one is based on the fact that ISPs benefit from happy customers, just like other companies. There isn’t an excess of competition in every area around the United States, but most regions have at least two options when it comes to Internet service. Unless there’s a vast ISP conspiracy to ruin the Internet, and thereby eliminate their own customer base, these ISPs will likely continue to compete for your business. That means you’ll see different pricing plans, and like it’s always been, the people who can pay for giant bandwidth allocations will pay for it, and the rest of us will make do with what we have.

ISPs Ruin the Internet

Outcome two: The Greedy ISP that doesn’t understand supply, demand, and competition. In the event that all of the current ISPs do band together to throttle the Internet access of the vast majority of users, for the benefit of a small, wealthy minority, that would create a huge market gap. Our nation is, like it or not, dependent on the Internet – and we’re nothing if not innovative. In the event of an ISP takeover, new technologies, and new methods of sharing information – potentially faster, more robust, and all-around better than our current Internet could easily arise to compete with those ISPs.

A World Without The Internet

Meshnet is one example of an Internet alternative; and community mesh networks are on the rise as well – there was a local mesh network at use during the Occupy Wall Street movement, according to Popular Resistance. As innovators carve out the mesh niche, there will inevitably be ways to connect and expand the networks, potentially into a parallel and even more robust global network. Could we be looking at a future without The Internet? It’s possible – but the next question is; would that be a bad thing?

© Copyright 2014 Victoria Nicks, All rights Reserved. Written For: Decoded Science
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Filed Under: Headlines, Technology

Resources for this article

Aaron, Craig. Does This Ruling Mean The End of the Internet? Maybe.. (2014). Daily Beast. Accessed on January 15, 2014


United States Court of Appeals FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT. Verizon, Appellant v. Federal Communications Commission, Appellee. (2014). Accessed on January 15, 2014


Khaw, C.. Project Meshnet Aims to Build a Censorship-free Alternative to the Internet. (2012). Tech Hive. Accessed on January 15, 2014


Project Meshnet. Project Meshnet: The Global Network. (2014). Accessed on January 15, 2014


Thompson, Clive. Creating An Alternative Internet To Keep The NSA Out. (2013). Popular Resistance. Accessed on January 15, 2014


Broadband.gov. National Broadband Map. (2014). Accessed on January 15, 2014




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Comments

  1. ScaryDave Thechurchofdave says

    November 12, 2014 at 3:06 am

    Here is a way to look at it.
    A while back, there was a push to deregulate the media.
    The claim was that the media would self regulate and the resulting competition would then make for a better experience for us, the users. So the media was deregulated.

    No the media is mostly owned by 6 companies. Journalistic integrity has gone completely to the dogs, opinion out plays any kind of actual reporting, radio stations were all bought up, DJ’s were fired and now most of the larger radio programing is coming from a computer. Leaving the colleges to pick up the slack as far as anything even remotely personalized.

    The deregulation of the media had a horrible impact on the United States. The watchdogs are now owned by the people they used to report about. Huge corporations decide what can and cannot get said on TV, Cable and Radio. Huge corporations with huge Lobby groups decide what kind of content you are allowed to see. A very small handful of huge corporations literally control all of that information flow in this country. With devastating consequences. Even public radio is mostly funded by the state and the state tends to now do what the corps want. So even the public radio is no longer immune to those influences.

    Now we have the internet. The one place where information still flows freely. Where whistles are blown, corruption is exposed,. opinions fly freely, reasonable journalism and crazy journalism flow side by side so that the people can make their own decisions, good or bad. A truly free flowing stream of ideas.

    Look at how crimes are leaked and exposed on the net daily. Video uploaded from protests, journalists reporting from inside corrupt nations at risk of life and limb sometimes. People exposing bank fraud, political corruption, you name it. All because of the internet and it’s free flow of information.

    Do we seriously believe that handing that over to some giant corporations is going to go well? Do we seriously believe they won’t just get bought up or highly influenced by the corps who run the media now? For instance, who is truly behind this push to slice up the net to suit the providers. When was the last time some government or corp wanted power that they weren’t going to use? Is anyone truly naive enough to think that the entertainment companies who are losing huge sums of money to pirating and self distributed content aren’t going to shut all that bandwidth down in favor of their own premium services?

    If net neutrality continues to fail then yes, the net as we know it will die. Just as the media of the pre 1980’2 died. That is an absolute guarantee. Now some people will say but we have more choices now than the 80’s! True, you do. But those choices are all controlled by a very small selection of people. Would you let congress control what you can watch on TV? No? Then why you do allow 6 corporations to decide for you?

    People seem to be short sighted and think this is just about watching netflix or having access to google. Well anyone who knows the net from it’s early days in the 90’s knows that google is garbage. Absolute garbage. Most of the internet, cannot be accessed via google. Google shows you what is good for google’s business. That’s all.

    Allowing ISP’s to decide what we are allowed to access is going to destroy the internet. Sure, you can still play a video game and you can still watch youtube or netflix but that’s the superficial part. The internet is so much more important than entertainment. It gives us so so much more than the average user ever experiences and that MORE that the most brilliant people in this world need to keep us moving forward is extremely important to humanity.

    The internet has the power to hand out information, complete histories, free educations, real time news from average people on the scenes. Access to so much information I could never hope to list even a fraction of it here. Do we seriously believe that giving a corporation the power to simply wipe huge amounts of that away by making it unaccessible won’t get used?

    Here is a for instance. Youtube used to be equal. Everyone had an equal shot of making something that would get seen. Now it’s all commercialized because google took it over. It’s completely ruined. It caters to high dollar interests and small time users have little to no chance of being seen on simply their own merits or competing with the paid services. Everything that was great about youtube, is gone.

    Ebay used to be fantastic for the average person. Now it’s crap. It caters to high dollar companies and does it’s best to price every day users out of it. The would rather sell stuff from China than garage sale items. Their own words. Not mine.

    Over and over we see what happens when big money gets a hold of systems which allow individuals to express themselves freely.. It destroys them. Every time.

    So all one needs to do to answer these questions is look at history. When their is access for greed, control and manipulation, is it ever passed up? Not that I have read about.

    This is very important. For the first time in history. The bulk of the information created in this world doesn’t travel from the top down.

    Historically, books, radio, TV, education, politics and law have all come from the top down. Meaning the powers in control of each area have the power to edit all that material they produce and each of those group leaders tends to be very familiar with the others. The consumers are simply pawns who consume.

    The internet is the first time in history when most of the information in the world is created at the bottom and is able to travel freely between the masses WITHOUT being edited by the people controlling to top. The publishers, politicians, movie studio owners, record label execs an so on. For the first time, the bulk of the information on this planet is not controlled by the richest and most powerful people in the world. Television and radio used to have some small players. They weren’t like you and I but they were small ish. They are all gone now. Deregulation killed them.

    THIS is what you are gambling with. Not Simpsons reruns. Not email speed. You are gambling with the very force that is helping the empires of this world fall. Russia for instance. The soviet union was crushed by the fax machine. Because when the TV stations and the Radio stations were taken over, the fax machines, a very new technology at the time, allowed people to still share the real news as apposed to the propaganda. The internet is that on steroids. It has the power to END countries. It has the power to free people’s minds with information of their own choosing. THAT is what you are gambling with here.

    The internet is more American Revolution that George Washington and Thomas Jefferson combined. THAT is what people want us to just hand over to ISP’s. There are NO good reasons to do that. Not a single one. The idea that anyone is even considering it is absurd.

    There is only one way to deal with the internet. Open it up, make it faster, spread it’s reach to more and more remote places. Give more power to the people with it and use it to question the motivation of anyone who suggests we do other wise. Because freedom is not handed down from the top. It is demanded and exercised from the bottom.

    Reply
    • Vicky says

      November 12, 2014 at 7:35 am

      In the immortal words of someone or other, ‘If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.’ When those huge corps gobble up the Internet and we’re all unable to do anything (Like what happened when they de-regulated the phone system – total chaos, big corporations took over and now I’m paying 40$ a month for a cell-phone! Crazy![tic]) online…. And there’s no alternative Internet cropping up on the airwaves to save us all from the sounds of silence… then’s a good time for the government to step in. 🙂

      Reply
  2. Megan Hamilton says

    January 16, 2014 at 4:52 pm

    I’m willing to bet that things won’t change that much. Mesh net sounds like a good idea. The whole issue with CISPA and its ilk is that I was worried about losing whatever privacy I do have on the internet, but I’ve decided it wasn’t a big enough deal to get too worried about. Time will tell, I guess!

    Reply

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About the Author

Victoria Nicks

Victoria Nicks, founder of Decoded Science, holds a Master of Science in Information Technology from Golden Gate University’s Ageno School of Business, to augment over 20 years of hands-on experience with various types of … Read Full Profile

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