Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf appeals for more international aid to combat ebola in her ravaged country. Image courtesy of the U.S. White House
Ebola is a rare hemorrhagic disease that is currently out of control in West Africa. The total number of outbreaks to date claimed 1700 lives, from 1976-2013.
The current outbreak, with 2,246 fatalities by August 31, 2014, exceeds all the previous outbreaks put together. What can the global community do to halt the spread of the disease? If more aid does not arrive, the victim count could reach 1,000,000 victims in the next 12 to 18 weeks.
Ebola Virus History
The first outbreak was located beside the river Ebola, in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) in 1976. Dr. Petr Piot of Antwerp, Belgium, received ebola blood samples in ice from ebola victims in the DRC by post, in 1976, prompting him to visit some Belgian nuns in charge of a hospital in the DRC where there were no doctors.
In this hospital, caregivers were washing and re-using syringes because they had no health supplies. Dr. Piot named the virus from the river.
The realisation that ebola could be an effective biological weapon ensured that health officials from various nations sought and secured a vaccine. The US, Canada and Russia were engaged in harvesting antibodies from ebola survivors, so that an effective vaccine against this global threat could be created.
Dr. Kobinger, in Ontario, Canada, developed a vaccine for the rare ebola virus using antibodies from survivors of the 1976 ebola outbreak. Perversely, any alteration of the genome may have generated a more virulent ebola subspecies! These countries harboured ebola, in secure locations, along with the related marburg virus, so that they could produce vaccines quickly if necessary.
Ebola Outbreak: Hemorrhagic Infection Spreads
Ebola uses protein spikes to attach to red blood corpuscles. Ebola then enters and kills the cells – producing a hemorrhagic flow from all organs. This flow of blood is highly contagious to another person touching it. Antibodies, when introduced into a person infected with ebola, retracts these proteins so that the ebola virus cannot attach to the cells.
In Monrovia Liberia, ebola victims die at the gates because there are no more beds. In West Africa there is one doctor for every 71,000 patients. The U.S. CDC in Atlanta Georgia is monitoring the ebola outbreak, and recently sent a team to Senegal, West Africa.
Could U.S. involvement spur a global movement to assist in West Africa? The reproduction of ZMAPP requires tobacco plants to reproduce enough implanted ebola antibodies/proteins to generate enough antibodies to generate enough vaccine to control the ebola outbreak. The next batch to treat the West African outbreak will be ready in December 2014. What will the ebola outbreak look like by then?
The global community must come to the aid of West Africa to stem the spread of ebola. Image by Decoded Science
The 2014 Ebola Outbreak is fully out of Control
Each ebola victim generates at least one other ebola victim. The doubling time for ebola infections is now down to 4 weeks.
Within one month the doubling time will be 7 days. The current number of ebola victims – over 2200 – will double to 4,000 in one month, then to 8,000 and then 16,000 as we reach a 7-day doubling time.
Taking into consideration the addition of more beds, more medical assistance, and the availability of ZMapp to the West African ebola victims, the doubling time may not increase as quickly. With an outpouring of aid from the global community, the ebola outbreak may require 8 weeks to reach a seven-day doubling time.
When we do reach the 7 day critical doubling time, however, it’s a short interval to reach a million victims – this could happen within 12 to 18 weeks from now.
What’s Next for Ebola?
Clearly, integrated international aid, more international volunteers, more hospital beds, and expanded use of treatments such as ZMapp could make a world of difference. What if the aid doesn’t appear? The victim count will continue to increase.
© Copyright 2014 Paul Dunne, All rights Reserved. Written For: Decoded Science
Proceedings from Dallas USA convention on ebola:- All travel to and from West Africa should be suspended, the ebola infected areas isolated and a vaccine introduced for all western medical and military personnel operating in the area. The ebola vaccine will be available with 4 months. Ebola, a hemorrhagic disease, destroys the liver which allows blood to clot, the end result is a shedding of 5 litres of blood exiting the stricken patient daily. ebola a category 4 pathogen requires just 2 viral particles to induce an ebola infection. 10 billion ebola particles are present in 1 ml of blood rendering ebola highly infectious. This ebola outbreak is costing West african countries $30 billion annually. It is expected the ebola virus will become less virulent because killing the host does not allow the ebola virus to survive and thrive. Airport screening will not detect healthy non-overt ebola sufferers.
Sierra Leone, with a population of 6 million, had 160 doctors dealing with the 2014 ebola outbreak. 60 of these doctors died from ebola while treating the outbreak. At present the time lag between the massive western response to ebola in Sierra Leone ensures there is a significant time lag between deaths from ebola and those infected. There remains an unknown number of ebola sufferers in West Africa. A structured US and EU military co-ordination with isolation and separate treatment facilities in West Africa will inevitably contain the ebola outbreak by mid-December 2014.
Nigeria with 20 ebola cases and 8 deaths has had no further ebola outbreaks so that the WHO declared Nigeria ebola free.
US and EU medical personnel returning from West Africa must be screened and monitored for ebola.
Where did you get this statistic? “In West Africa there is one doctor for every 71,000 patients.”
Thank you.
UN, WHO, UNESCO, UNHCR all confirm statistics regarding medical; personnel per head of population.
Congratulations on your article, Professor Paul Dunne … I had reported the disease in the media and Internet, but now recently became aware of the global dimension of the problem … The report is clear and very revealing … and sorry if I made a gross error in my previous comments … .Jordi
Congratulaciones por su artículo, Profesor Paul Dunne…Me había informado de la enfermedad por los medios y por Internet, pero ahora recién tomé conciencia de la dimensión mundial del problema…Su informe es claro y muy revelador…Y disculpe si he cometido algún error grosero en mis comentarios anteriores….Jordi
Is there an update on this situation? I would appreciate hearing more if you are still tracking the spread of this virus.
Update pending October 7, 2014
Between February and September 2014, 3,450 died from ebola. During the same time period 300,000 died from malaria and 800,000 died from tuberculosis. Should 10 people contract ebola then 3 will survive this is nature of a virulent Hemorrhagic Fever Virus (HFV).
ebola will be contained with US and UK troops building hospitals, isolation & treatment centres in West Africa which will interdict the rise in ebola within 6 to 8 weeks. No one can predict the future, however, the world has woken up to ebola and the civil war wracked Sierra Leone and Liberia infrastructures need international help.
Nigeria has dealt effectively with ebola through isolation and re-hydration treatment of ebola victims, similarly, Senegal has dealt effectively with one ebola case.
A nurse in Madrid, Spain, double taped her glove which she released with her uncovered hand.
The US must screen West Africans or travelers to and from the US.
Ebola is a “primitive virus” in humans, still not evolved to “not kill its host” … When it becomes chronic in humans lower your degree of lethality, like other virus … It would sense the evolution of a virus that kills all guests ?… The Junin virus (or “mal de los rastrojos”), if it comes in the cities, could also evolve into a variant contagious among humans … Luckily we have the vaccine from the 50 …
In a way, we are better prepared than the first world countries, they never had before hemorrhagic diseases … In Argentina there is experience in treating patients with Junin virus, an hemorrhagic virus family also has Ebola … High mortality rates, but a vaccine is now available … But with this disease, Ebola, one can only fight the symptoms as they arise … viruses do not have remedies in the style of an antibiotic is only … using antivirals to contain the attack, expect the patient to support the disease until the virus complete its infectious cycle, and pray that an effective vaccine is … The high mortality is mainly due to the poor state of health in Africa and systemic deterioration of patients when they come to the hospital … The Junin Virus (or “mal de los rastrojos”) have lower mortality rates, and perhaps more manageable through the knowledge of our doctors, who are the real heroes movie … I just hope they serve this previous experience, when the inexorable arrival of Ebola River Plate to happen, and it will in a similar way to America … God help us to argentos and americans too…
En cierta forma, estamos mejor preparados que los países del primer mundo, que nunca antes tuvieron enfermedades hemorrágicas…En Argentina hay experiencia en tratar pacientes con el Virus Junín, que es un virus hemorrágico de la familia del Ébola…También tiene altas tasas de mortalidad, pero ya hay disponible una vacuna…Con esta enfermedad, el Ébola, sólo queda luchar contra los síntomas a medida que estos aparecen… Los virus no tienen remedios al estilo de un antibiótico…solo queda usar antivirales para contener el ataque, esperar que el paciente soporte la enfermedad hasta que el virus termine su ciclo infeccioso, y rogar que se encuentre una vacuna eficaz…Las altas tasas de mortalidad se deben mayormente al estado deficiente de la sanidad en África, y al deterioro sistémico de los pacientes cuando acuden al Hospital…El Virus Junín (o mal de los rastrojos) tiene tasas menores de mortalidad, y tal vez sea mas manejable, por el conocimiento de nuestros médicos, que son los verdaderos héroes de la película… Sólo espero que sirva esta experiencia previa, cuando ocurra el inexorable arribo del Ébola al Río de la Plata, y lo hará en forma parecida a EE.UU…Dios nos proteja a los argentinos…
The article states that the doubling time is getting shorter. Why?
Each ebola victim generates another ebola victim due to personal contacts. The number of victims reached 10,000 – both infected and dead at the end of September 2014. The 21 day incubation period (three weeks at present) determines the doubling time. In three weeks time the 10,000 will generate 20,000 ebola sufferers.
The ebola outbreak is fully and completely out of control in Sierra Leone.
Many West African refugees arriving in Southern Italy may be ebola sufferers.
Doubling time does not change based on the outbteak size. One infects 2, 2 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16 etc, but each time its been taking the exact same time to double. What you are doing is dobling the outbreak each time AND halving the time it doubles again. Thats not how it works. The outbreak spreads twice as fast, but the doubling time remains unchanged. If u plot the current outbreak since march, the cases double almost exactly every 26 days.
The USA is listed among those countries with ebola victims due to the Liberian man who presented symptomless this week and was turned away only to return to the same Texas, USA hospital who then belatedly treated him. Unfortunately, this man was in contact with at least 100 other people. It is a priority to trace these contacts.
Those ebola victims within the 21 day incubation period for ebola could consist of those victims within 7, 14 and 21 days respectively of displaying symptoms of infection. The three week (21 day) current doubling time could be eclipsed by these three (7, 14 &21) incubation times overwhelming treatment centres.
Ebola at this exponential scale simply cannot be comprehended, this is precisely why the epidemic is fully and completely out of control in Sierra Leone.
Hi I work for counter, we are trying to end humanity so please sit back relax and enjoy the show
Its means he is not tottaly cured yet..
I dont consider there is a cheap cure..other wise its a Qurban for the Dajjal.
I have a 98% successful treatment for Ebola. I am willing to go to West Africa and administer this treatment MYSELF. However I lack funding and also lack authorization from a local government that will allow me to give this treatment to local patients. It will take about $20,000 USD to treat and cure 200 patients. I propose that this be done as a trial. The results will then be published if it is successful.
Dr. Jack Butler
How could you possibly have a 98% effective treatment for ebola? In what population did you test this “treatment” to arrive at your 98% rate?